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See their cooling graph for the next 100 years!
In a study of cyclic behavior of the Sun, Russian scientists now predict 100 years of cooling.
These are not just any scientists. This forecast comes from astrophysicist Dr Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of the Russian segment of the International Space Station, and head of Space Research of the Sun Sector at the Pulkovo Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
The Russian scientists began by looking at a paper published by J. A. Eddy* in 1976 that documented the correlation between sunspot activity and corresponding large – and disruptive – climate changes on Earth. Disruptive because the changes frequently lead to economic and demographic crises that affected the existence of entire nations.
Conducting research similar to Eddy’s, Russia’s Eugene Borisenkov** discovered a quasi 200- year cycle of global cooling during the past 7,500 years that correlates to times of sunspot minima similar to the Maunder minimum. (These were also times when any industrial influence was non-existent, Abdussamatov points out. )
Observed variations in 11-year sunspot activity (solid thin curve) and in 200-year solar activity (solid thick curve) and our forecast from 2009 to 2042 (dashed lines) (Abdussamatov H. I. KPhCB, 2007. 23, 97).
Our planet warms and cools in predictable 200-year cycles corresponding to 200-year variations in the size and luminosity of the Sun, the scientists found. Previous global warmings – of which there have been many – have always been followed by deep cooling.
The 200-year variations in sunspot activity and total solar irradiance (TSI) are the dominating reason for climate change, says Abdussamatov. “In whole, the solar cycles are a key to our understanding of different cyclic variations in the nature and society.”
TSI variations and sunspot activity since 1611 and our forecast (dashed lines) (Abdussamatov H. I. The Sun Dictates the Climate of the Earth. 2009, St. Petersburg, “Logos”, – 197 p.; The Sun Dictates the Climate. 4th International Conference on Climate Change in Chicago, May 2010.
Existence of the 11-year and 200-year solar cycles of identical and synchronized variations of luminosity, sunspot activity and diameter of the Sun is one of the most reliably ascertained facts in solar physics, says Abdussamatov.
“The study of physical processes on the Sun not only gives us an understanding of a large number of astrophysical questions, but also of the questions of geophysics, meteorology, biology and medicine. All energy sources used by humanity are linked to the Sun. The heat and light of the Sun ensured the development of life on the Earth, formed the deposits of coal, oil, gas etc.”
“All life on the Earth and its future conditions directly and almost in whole depend on the total solar irradiance (TSI).”
See entire paper:
Thanks to Marc Morano and Joseph Bast for this link
* Eddy J. A. Science. 1976. 192, 1189
** Eugene Borisenkov (Climate variations during the last millennium. Leningrad. 1988. p. 275)
New Little Ice Age ‘to Begin in 2014′
I sat just ten feet away from Dr Abdussamatov as he made this startling assertion at the Heartland Institute’s 4th International Conference on Climate Change in Chicago in May 2010.
11 May - 4 sunspots
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Good news! A publisher in Italy has now translated Not by Fire but by Ice into Italian.
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