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See their cooling graph for the next 100 years!

In a study of cyclic behavior of the Sun, Russian scientists now predict 100 years of cooling.

These are not just any scientists. This forecast comes from astrophysicist Dr Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of the Russian segment of the International Space Station, and head of Space Research of the Sun Sector at the Pulkovo Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

The Russian scientists began by looking at a paper published by J. A. Eddy* in 1976 that documented the correlation between sunspot activity and corresponding large – and disruptive – climate changes on Earth.  Disruptive because the changes frequently lead to economic and demographic crises that affected the existence of entire nations.

Conducting research similar to Eddy’s, Russia’s Eugene Borisenkov** discovered a quasi 200- year cycle of global cooling during the past 7,500 years that correlates to times of sunspot minima similar to the Maunder minimum. (These were also times when any industrial influence was non-existent, Abdussamatov points out. )


Observed variations in 11-year sunspot activity (solid thin curve) and in 200-year solar activity (solid thick curve) and our forecast from 2009 to 2042 (dashed lines) (Abdussamatov H. I. KPhCB, 2007. 23, 97).


Our planet warms and cools in predictable 200-year cycles corresponding to 200-year variations in the size and luminosity of the Sun, the scientists found. Previous global warmings – of which there have been many – have always been followed by deep cooling.

The 200-year variations in sunspot activity and total solar irradiance (TSI) are the dominating reason for climate change, says Abdussamatov. “In whole, the solar cycles are a key to our understanding of different cyclic variations in the nature and society.”



TSI variations and sunspot activity since 1611 and our forecast (dashed lines) (Abdussamatov H. I. The Sun Dictates the Climate of the Earth. 2009, St. Petersburg, “Logos”, – 197 p.; The Sun Dictates the Climate. 4th International Conference on Climate Change in Chicago, May 2010.


Existence of the 11-year and 200-year solar cycles of identical and synchronized variations of luminosity, sunspot activity and diameter of the Sun is one of the most reliably ascertained facts in solar physics, says Abdussamatov.

“The study of physical processes on the Sun not only gives us an understanding of a large number of astrophysical questions, but also of the questions of geophysics, meteorology, biology and medicine. All energy sources used by humanity are linked to the Sun. The heat and light of the Sun ensured the development of life on the Earth, formed the deposits of coal, oil, gas etc.”

“All life on the Earth and its future conditions directly and almost in whole depend on the total solar irradiance (TSI).”

See entire paper:
http://www.gao.spb.ru/english/astrometr/index1_eng.html

Thanks to Marc Morano and Joseph Bast for this link

* Eddy J. A. Science. 1976. 192, 1189
** Eugene Borisenkov (Climate variations during the last millennium. Leningrad. 1988. p. 275)

See also:

New Little Ice Age ‘to Begin in 2014′
I sat just ten feet away from Dr Abdussamatov as he made this startling assertion at the Heartland Institute’s 4th International Conference on Climate Change in Chicago in May 2010.
http://www.iceagenow.com/New_Little_Ice_Age_to_Begin_in_2014.htm

 

 

30 Responses to Russian scientist predicts 100 years of cooling

  1. Victoria says:

    Abdussamatov is brilliant!

    I was just wondering ……. El Hierro looks like it might have a double eruption (sea and land)in the near future. If, as feared, El Hierro turns out to be a catastropic event, would it hasten the ice age?

    Is there a correlation between sun spot activity, and with what seems to be increased volcanic activity here on earth? Does the moon have any role to play in the movement of magma around the earth? The moon does after all have a role to play with our ocean tides.

    • C. Peter Davis says:

      The Moon is developing massive cracks at the same time the Earth is cracking (huge increase in earthquakes)like a hard boiled egg dropped on the floor. This would indicate a massive unseen gravitational force at work in our Solar System. There be strange goings on in these uncertain times.

      • Sonya says:

        Haven’t heard of the Moon having cracks — can you give us further details or tell us where to find them?

      • Jeremy says:

        @C.Peter Davis – are you referring to the findings of lobate scarps on the Moon, announced in August? If so, you may have missed that these “shrinkage cracks” are somewhere between one thousand million (US billion) and one hundred million years old, and entirely down to the cooling of the Moon as tectonic activity ended.

        There is no seismic activity on the Moon, and no indication of “massive unseen gravitational force” anywhere in the Solar System.

        • garisonpaul says:

          Don’t know anything about “unseen gravitational force”, but NASA would disagree re: no seismic activity… “Clive R. Neal, associate professor of civil engineering and geological sciences at the University of Notre Dame after he and a team of 15 other planetary scientists reexamined Apollo data from the 1970s. ‘The moon is seismically active,’…” http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2006/15mar_moonquakes/

          • Jeremy says:

            Apologies – the word “significant” was meant to be in there, but got lost somewhere. OK, we can argue about what constitutes “significant”, but what I was trying to get at is that there does not appear to be anything that would create major differences to the lunar surface, such as cracks.

    • Nick Stoneman says:

      Hi Victoria

      You raise some interesting points.

      El Hierro is just one small volcano. Recent sea floor surveys, and extrapolations from those surveys, suggest there could be millions of undersea volcanoes, so unless El Hierro becomes a super-volcano it probably won’t make that much difference.

      Piers Corbyn of WeatherAction.com has developed a model which is very good at weather prediction. It combines solar activity (like Abdussamatov) with lunar effects. It seems that the magnetic interaction between the sun, earth and moon modifies how variations in the sun’s activity affect our weather and climate. His method predicts we are heading for at least a mini ice age, maybe a full blown one.

      He is also developing a model which links this sun-earth-moon interaction to peaks of earthquake activity, though at the moment this is less good at predicting earthquakes, compared to his excellent record at predicting weather events. For example he highlighted November 9-10 as higher earthquake risk. (In both the weather forecast and the earthquake forecasts he warns to allow 1 day either side for timings, so we’re looking at November 8-11.) We had Nov 8: M6.9 NE of Taiwan, M5.6 Turkey; Nov 9 M5.6 Turkey, M5.7 S Pacific. So roughly in the predicted period.

      Very interesting explanatory pdf at http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews11No5a.pdf

      More comments at http://www.weatheraction.com/

      Best wishes, Nick

  2. Fran says:

    If the “…200-year solar cycles of identical and synchronized variations of luminosity, sunspot activity and diameter of the Sun *is one of the most reliably ascertained facts in solar physics*…”, why is nobody talking about it? Why is not NASA all over it, now that we’re entering a new cooling period? Hmmm, let me guess: they’re afraid of the truth, or maybe the truth has no political agenda.
    Well, anyways another great article. Thanks Robert!

    • Alex says:

      Well, perhaps it’s just plain not true. As a sceptic, that was my first instinct.

      However, this graph from Ray Tomes’ blog of reconstructed solar cycles by decade over the Holocene seems to indicate a very clear 200 year cycle.

      Notice that each of the vertical graph lines represents 200 years. It does seem that there is usually a drop off at that point: But a minor drop off quite unlike the Maunder Minimum is the norm. So on this cyclical basis alone there’s no reason to think a little ice age is likely. Dr Abdussamatov’s paper, I assume, provides other reasons for his conclusion.

      I cannot speak for the accuracy of it, as I haven’t read its purported source, S. K. Solanki et al. (2005). Having tree-ring data for ten thousand years strikes me as bizarre; I’ve never heard of trees that live that long.

      (Just eyeballing, there’s a hint at an 7000 year cycle as well, corresponding to the Little Ice Age and Bond Event 4 or the 5.9 ky event. But for all I know it might just be that these colder, arid periods make tree rings record fewer sunspots.)

    • TashaTchin says:

      The “truth” won’t allow for the creation of a new derivatives market based on carbon credits. In all things, follow the money. Bloomberg financial news let this idea of the development of a carbon derivatives market out of the bag a couple of years ago — about the time of the “Climate-gate” revelations. The “powers that be” knew that the mortgage derivatives market was about to implode and needed to develope a replacement so “big money” had a place to go to make even more $$$.

  3. scizzorbill says:

    Cool! I mean that literally. Glad I live in the tropics.

  4. Tom says:

    I do have a problem with establishing the reliability of an open ended equation from a data set that is only 400 years long. It may be possible, and the cycle may actually exist, but to proclaim it as “one of the most reliably ascertained facts” sounds a bit of a stretch, and I am surprised that claim would be made. You have to remember, that “the science of global warming,” as per the computer models, was also reliably ascertained facts.

    The truth is, we don’t have an actual data set long enough to truly state the reliability of any of the “models” being used – be they AGW’s computer models, or sunspot cycle models, or the oscillation of the temperatures in the ocean. A lot of the “data sets” are interpolated by processes that appear to be accurate, but may have flaws, just as the “faster than light” particle causes with the basis of modern physics – the theory of relativity. I appreciate this as another blow to AGW, but until we have a data set that is both long and known to be reasonably accurate without “massaging” the data, we are still only hypothesizing.

    • Nick Stoneman says:

      Hi Tom

      Beyond about 400 years ago we have to rely on proxy data from ice cores, pollen samples in peat bogs, etc. These sort of data need to be interpreted carefully. The AGW brigade have taken these and ended up with their conclusions. But their climate models have totally failed at predicting climate over the last 10 years, so their underlying assumption of human caused global warming is probably erroneous.

      Using the same data but taking an astrophysics approach, Piers Corbyn has developed a model which has accurately predicted climate over that period. It also provides a natural (rather than human) explanation for climate change. He uses the geomagnetic entanglement of the earth, sun and moon to modify the effects of solar activity on our climate.

      Very interesting explanatory pdf at http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews11No5a.pdf

      Comments on his forecasts are to be found at http://www.weatheraction.com/

      His theory fits the historical data, and it is very successful at forecasting weather events months, and even years, in advance. He is now refining it to predict periods of increased earthquake activity – that’s still a work in progress.

      Best wishes, Nick

    • Fran says:

      I really liked your comment. All of our so called “scientific” conclusions are highly based on model upon models.
      The Sun and Earth are very, very large systems and they are not subject to lab experimentation, therefore we’re kind of trusting what happened in the last few decades (sometimes the data extends to centuries, but rarely more than that) to make predictions about the next 6 months and quite often they fail. This is similar to what is happening in Astrophysics where there is a lot “beliefs” implied in the various models.
      I *do* think that the Sun is at the center of the weather systems for Earth simple because of energy conservation, it just cannot be different… but we still know so little about our Sun… then… the bragging of “I know it all” typical of immature minds (and immature science) has taken over a large part of the mainstream ideas out there.

  5. Nakul Pandav says:

    Not a good time for one to be in Russia now,eh? Shit!:-)

    • Laurel says:

      actually Russias probably better equipped and the people are used to dwaling with serious cold and snows. the heating isnt an issue as from what a friend says its centrally supplied?
      and theyre NOT stupid like the west re banning new coal gas or oil plants to help their people survive in extreme cold.
      I would hope? theres access to short season grains.I know the folks saving seeds and fighting their labs being flattened for new housing had a staggeringly good and rare collection of useful food plants.

  6. Steven Rowlandson says:

    A Maunder Minimum is not the end of the world but it will be a test of survival and adaptation for many. Probably be a good idea for farmers to study
    Scandinavian agriculture for use in north america and continental europe. The winter sports related businesses should do well. Baring the onset of a real ice age I think most people will survive if the right things are done in time.

  7. Thank you Robert! It was also from the Ukraine and Poland that it was predicted that last winter would be a bad one because of the jet stream being slower than “normal” allowing cold arctic air to fall further south. I think they got that right. I’ve wondered if the sun’s lower irradiance has caused the jet stream to slow down as well?

  8. Simon says:

    Isn’t this old news though? This was reported initially 2 years ago.

    One thing is for sure at the moment: October was one of the mildest on record in W Europe and November thus far is on course for being the warmest ever recorded. The snow is over in the States and Canada but for NW Europe, the autumn and early winter in Scandinavia has been nothing short of a heatwave.

    • R. de Haan says:

      With all due respect Simon but the linkage between climate science and a relative warm October month in Western Europe….

      For once and for all:
      Weather is what you experience on a day to day basis. Weather can warm you or it can kill you.

      Climate is the long term average of weather.

      As for the warm October period we enjoyed this was caused by a blocking high sending warm air from the Med up North.

      This has nothing to do with AGW which is non existing but 100% natural causes.

    • TashaTchin says:

      The climate is changing in So. California and has been for some time. It is trending cooler. Currently, we have snow in the local mountains surrounding Los Angeles and it has been snowing on and off since October. I grow orchids and my cymbidiums, which set flower spikes in the winter for blooms in the spring, are already putting out buds. This particular cym (which I have had for about 15 years) has been spiking earlier every year for the last 6 or 7 years. My herb garden also “went to seed” much earlier this year, producing seeds before mid-summer. Watch nature, folks, our climate is trending cooler!

  9. ShariShark says:

    Isn’t it wonderful – if you don’t belong to the AGW community – you can debate scientific theories without being called names – the things we know for certain about our universe take up very little room in the library – the things we are trying to find out would take planets to contain just the questions. We will see as time passes whether there was enough data in this study to indicate the future and we don’t just have to “BELIEVE IT, IT’s SETTLED”

  10. QuentinF says:

    Here..
    Back in 1965 Paul Jose was one of the first to link solar modulation with planetary movements. He discovered that the planets roughly returned to the same position every 178.8 years
    Pretty close to 200 years!

  11. yaridanjo says:

    The cool weather is due to the injection of cosmic dust into the higher atmosphere by fireballs and comet fragments. Google:
    HAVE COMET FRAGMENT EXPLOSIONS STARTED AN ICE AGE?
    BTW, this offers radical thesis in addition to the cosmic dust and it may not prove acceptable to many.

  12. R. de Haan says:

    A similar prediction has been made by the Dutch solar
    prof. C. de Jager and S. Huhau
    http://www.cdejager.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/2010-Grand-Min-JCosm-8-19832.pdf

    Solar Activity and Climate from Lightcurve Films on Vimeo.

  13. S.Bird says:

    It’s a pity that Abdussamatov is still under the illusion that oil and gas are of organic origin.
    I know he’s not alone but before you start telling me I don’t know what I’m talking about and you “know” because you were taught so in school, think about the poor kids who now sit in your old classroom and get taught they’re all gonna die because their wicked parents (you) release to much carbon dioxide.
    I’ll wait for the hysterical responses from those who cannot stand to have their paradigm shifted before going into further detail.
    Regards
    Steve

    • Bill Miller says:

      Steve said: “It’s a pity that Abdussamatov is still under the illusion that oil and gas are of organic origin.”

      If he is under that illusion, he most be the *only* Russian or Ukrainian scientist to have that illusion!

      The concept of abiotic petroleum was pioneered by Russian and Ukrainian scientists, at Stalin’s “urging.” It seems that Stalin didn’t want to have to bet his entire country (again) on *one* battle (Stalingrad) that supplied essentially *all* of Russia’s oil.

      The fact that Russian/Ukrainian scientists were successful in locating new oil fields in a country that was supposed (by western geologists) to have very little, is shown by the fact that Russia is now a *huge* exporter of petroleum.

      There is lots of data on the net, but I highly recommend “The Deep Hot Biosphere” by Dr. Thomas Gold. He shows (IMHO) that petroleum is of natural origin, that its chemical composition is modified by lifeforms that live underground, and that not one dinosaur ever gave up its life to fill your gas tank.

      Bill

  14. S.Bird says:

    Tom says,
    I do have a problem with establishing the reliability of an open ended equation from a data set that is only 400 years long.
    The ice core data from Rostov research station in Antarctica goes back 4020 years.
    Other reports say we have samples up to 800,000 years old from Antarctica.
    Then their are the cores from Greenland.
    Regards
    Steve


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