Earth Ice Age

Sorry Global Warming Alarmists

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“Ice ages have cyclically occurred roughly every 10,000 years, with a new one actually due around now.”

Sorry Global Warming Alarmists, The Earth Is Cooling

By Peter Ferrara

(Excerpts from an article in Forbes)

Climate change itself is already in the process of definitively rebutting climate alarmists who think human use of fossil fuels is causing ultimately catastrophic global warming. That is because natural climate cycles have already turned from warming to cooling, global temperatures have already been declining for more than 10 years, and global temperatures will continue to decline for another two decades or more.

Check out the 20th century temperature record, and you will find that its up and down pattern does not follow the industrial revolution’s upward march of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2)…. It follows instead the up and down pattern of naturally caused climate cycles.

For example, temperatures dropped steadily from the late 1940s to the late 1970s. The popular press was even talking about a coming ice age. Ice ages have cyclically occurred roughly every 10,000 years, with a new one actually due around now.

Central to these natural cycles is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Every 25 to 30 years the oceans undergo a natural cycle where the colder water below churns to replace the warmer water at the surface, and that affects global temperatures by the fractions of a degree we have seen. The PDO was cold from the late 1940s to the late 1970s, and it was warm from the late 1970s to the late 1990s, similar to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).

In 2000, the UN’s IPCC predicted that global temperatures would rise by 1 degree Celsius by 2010. Was that based on climate science, or political science to scare the public into accepting costly anti-industrial regulations and taxes?

Don Easterbrook, Professor Emeritus of Geology at Western Washington University, knew the answer. He publicly predicted in 2000 that global temperatures would decline by 2010. He made that prediction because he knew the PDO had turned cold in 1999, something the political scientists at the UN’s IPCC did not know or did not think significant.

Well, the results are in, and the winner is….Don Easterbrook.

Easterbrook expects the cooling trend to continue for another 2 decades or so…. He further expects the flipping of the ADO to add to the current downward trend.

But that is not all. We are also currently experiencing a surprisingly long period with very low sunspot activity. That is associated in the earth’s history with even lower, colder temperatures. The pattern was seen during a period known as the Dalton Minimum from 1790 to 1830, which saw temperature readings decline by 2 degrees in a 20 year period, and the noted Year Without A Summer in 1816 (which may have had other contributing short term causes).

Even worse was the period known as the Maunder Minimum from 1645 to 1715, which saw only about 50 sunspots during one 30 year period within the cycle, compared to a typical 40,000 to 50,000 sunspots during such periods in modern times. The Maunder Minimum coincided with the coldest part of the Little Ice Age, which the earth suffered from about 1350 to 1850. The Maunder Minimum saw sharply reduced agricultural output, and widespread human suffering, disease and premature death.

Easterbrook suggests that the outstanding question is only how cold this present cold cycle will get. Will it be modest like the cooling from the late 1940s to late 1970s? Or will the paucity of sunspots drive us all the way down to the Dalton Minimum, or even the Maunder Minimum? He says it is impossible to know now. But based on experience, he will probably know before the UN and its politicized IPCC.

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22 thoughts on “Sorry Global Warming Alarmists”

  1. Am I wrong in thinking that “ice ages” actually are a fairly recent phenomena for planetary weather? That there appears to have been a very long period of warm climate prior to that – the age of dinosaurs? Or did they manage to develop and grow in an “interglacial?” So, truly, what IS to prevent a duplication of that period as opposed to sliding back into an ice age? We don’t know enough about anything to predict where we are really heading, nor what is “normal” on this beautiful blue globe. Wouldn’t it be nice if we just kept trying to “learn” and stopped screaming “we know!”

  2. mankind can and will never be able to change anything on this planet! The existence of mankind on this planet is just a blink of the eye compare to the planet’s existence! Has anybody thought about the fact that the earth keeps it’s oxygen percentage levels exactly? How? And they worry about CO2?
    They should really worry about who they are, where they are heading and realise that time is our biggest enemy!All the generations before us, whatever they worried about and whatever they had done, the fact is they are gone…..gone!!

  3. While the multi-nationals, politicians and leftists worship at the alter in the global warming church the real environmental disasters are being duly ignored.

    Our water system polluted with toxic chemicals, GM crops, mega-fishing wiping out stocks, natural forest areas being wiped out to make way for “progress”, food packaging and the era of chuck away convenience, I could go on but we should be addressing these issues not a non-issue such as CO2.

  4. As the commenter noted above, we’re currently nearing the end of an interglacial period, within the current ice age. We have been in this warm cycle (the Holocene epoch) for about 12,000 years. The last period of glaciation within the current ice age is known as the Younger Dryas.

    Based on ice core records, interglacials, on average, last 11,500 to 12,000 years (although there is recent evidence of longer periods of warmth). Which means our planet is nearing the end of the current interglacial and the beginning of another period of glaciation. According to ice core data, these periods run in 40,000-year and 100,000-year cycles.

    We should be concerned about the current solar cycle 24, which may turn out to be weakest in more than 100 years. Solar cycle 25 may turn out be even weaker. There is a strong correlation between sunspots (and 10.7 solar flux) and climate. We may be headed for an extended period of cooling, which would be aggravated by the current cold PDO cycle and the shift to a negative (cold) AMO.

  5. AGW isn’t about the truth, its about environmentalist fanatics wanting to control human behavior. I think the book watermelons really gets to the root of this as does “Behind the Green Mask” which discusses the UN Agenda 21. They want socialist style control of where people can live, what they can buy, what they can eat and so on. AGW is just a convenient excuse for their program. A lot of people have been duped into it along the way.

  6. Funny that the Bilderberg cluster also had global COOLING on their last years agenda..kept rather quiet except for those who take notice..of what this collective of slimeballs get up to.
    wonder how many about faces and published iitems in the higher read category like Forbes it will take to shut the warmists down?
    al? al? where is ya al?
    he HAS been quiet lately and so have a lot of the others..funny that:-)
    Rio was an admitted failure before it began, but they had a nice taxpayer funded holiday at all our expenses.

  7. The big problem with the sunspot theory, is that records back from the last minimum were well before we had the large telescopes of today. To verify the minimum is the actual precursor, or cause of a mini-ice age, the ability to resolve sunspots must be consistent. For all we know back in 1650, when the first telescopes were mass produced, and Galileo was the first to see the moons of Jupiter, the resolution wasn’t good enough to count sunspots as well as can be done today. On the other hand, the fact there are as few today, as there were back then, or probably fewer may be more telling, as they may not have been able to count all the sunspots happening back then.

  8. How can anyone still be in denial that we are seeing overt rapid oscillations between interglacial and glacial mode, already? Warmistas like to say that this “flickering” is a precursor to tipping points and run away warming however the system is not constructed to operate that way. The various feedbacks and damping factors bias the system to spend more time in “ice” mode than interglacial mode (at least in the current tectonic and celestial configuration). So in this case, assuming a two state system as a broad brush, “flickering” when in the latter stages of an interglacial most likely is a result of the “ringing” one sees just prior to the state change.

    I really hope I’m wrong. Even something as brief as the Younger Dryas would kill billions.

  9. When Conservatives take back power, I hope someone in authority has enough guts to start bringing charges against these whacko warmists, along with many in the communist “green” movement. I want to see many of them do prison time for their crimes against humanity. Gore and Hanson would top the list. Maybe they could be cell mates.

  10. Label me whatever you want. When my family is well fed and warm and in relative comfort because I understood the SCIENCE and was able to prepare for a cold climate (and all that goes with it) while you were running the AGW train, then what will you be calling me?

  11. Easterbrook is great. He, and Robert Felix, helped wake me up 10 years ago to the lies of the alarmists.

  12. I Think Mr. Ferrara is a bit confused about cyclical ice ages. For the last 400,000-700,000 years ice ages have reoccurred about every 100,000 years in step with the Milankovich cyclea with interglacial periods of around 10,000 years. (Though there is evidence that the interglacial 400,000 years ago lasted as long as 40,000 years with a sharp cooling in the middle.) The Pleistocene (or geologic period of ice ages) began about 2 million years ago and for over a million years the periodicity was about 60,000 years. The truth is that there is much that scientists still don’t know about the ice ages and these gaps in knowledge can only be filled in by emperical observations and not by climate models or poorly informed speculation.

    1. I think there is some confusion here, many many years ago ice ages came and went every 40,000 years and we “think” (that is we have no idea) they were based on the 40,000 year precession (axial tilt etc).

      Then it switched to the 100,000 year cycle, we have no idea why it switched to this cycle and we have no idea why we get them every 100,000 years. Some guess it is the Malkovitch cycles but that is just a guess as the changes in orbits (M cycles) DO NOT ALIGN with this theory.

      Proof of this is all the conjecture surrounding the next ice age. We dont know when the next ice age is coming because we dont know what to look for………..

  13. One who predicted the next ice age in the 70’s was Prof. Stephen Schneider (RIP) (Coming Global Ice Age – Part III on YouTube) who later changed to the AGW theory for whatever reason. I believe he was one of the driving people in the IPCC and the puppet master of Al Gore.

    Would he change his theory again?

  14. now warming alarmists are saying that a few top scientist predicted cooling studies and many scientists are following, like a fashion trend….lol

  15. The ones that truly understands our climate and are going against the AGW fantasy are called “Deniers”. Heretics was the word the catholic church called everyone that didn´t obey their political crap. We are back in the middle ages.

  16. …..and he will be labeled as a denier! even though he understands what he’s talking about.

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