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“The center of the Corn Belt, now in Iowa, will move south to Kansas,” says Archibald.

Global cooling? David Archibald predicts 4.9°C fall (!)



Using solar and surface data, David Archibald, polymath, makes a bold prediction that temperatures are about to dive sharply (in the decadal sense). He took the  forgotten correlation that as solar cycles lengthen and weaken, the world gets cooler. He refined it into a predictive tool, tested it and published in 2007. His paper has been expanded on recently by Prof Solheim in Norway, who predicts a 1.5°C drop in Central Norway over the next ten years.

See entire article from January of this year. Includes many graphs:
http://joannenova.com.au/2012/01/global-cooling-coming-archibald-uses-solar-and-surface-data-to-predict-4-9c-fall/

Thanks to Fred Furkenburger for this link

 

31 Responses to Global cooling? David Archibald says temperatures are about to dive

  1. Perdavid says:

    The Sun is the climate driver, C02 is not.

    • KirkMyers says:

      You are correct. The sun is the long-term climate driver, with oceanic oscillations such as the PDO and AMO serving as decadal drivers. Combine the current weak sun with a negative PDO and AMO and volcanism, and you get what meteorologist Joe Bastardi calls the “triple crown of cooling.”

      Early indications are that the planet is on the brink of a long-term cool-down (it’s already turned cooler on global scale, according to HadCRUT 3 temperature data), perhaps even on the scale of Maunder Minimum. It that occurs, large swaths of the grain belts in Europe, Asia and North America could experience severe crop failures, triggering widespread famine.

    • John says:

      Yes, it is. Amazing NASA would push the politically preferable opposite tact.

  2. Laurel says:

    so now we wait for hansen and the other 70s ice age claimants to re re do their old stories, and say they KNEW they were right all along.
    except back then it was ozone wasnt it?
    and industrial pollution ?
    sulphur I seem to remember.
    will be rather amusing to see how they manage to blame co2 after the temps drop and drop and drop some more. I guess they’ll keep the disruption tag for a while:-)

  3. Harold says:

    People in the 22nd Century will look back at global warming theorists, shake their heads in derision, smile wryly, and say, “What WERE those people thinking?”

  4. Alex says:

    down with almost 5C ? omg, that’s huge ! Some meteorologists done a simulation for Europe, they calculated average temp for Europe lower with 2C-3C, and Eastern Europe will have a climate like Central Siberia, but down with 5C…….

  5. gator69 says:

    That is one frightening scenario, and I hope he is wrong, but only time will tell. My gut tells me he is not far off.

  6. TomO says:

    As I read this, and no, I didn’t go and read the whole article, it would appear that Mr. Archibald is saying that “in spite of carbon dioxide driven global warming, we are dropping into an ice age.” You can’t have “including carbon dioxide heating effect” in his forecast unless he was a warmist at heart. He might be being forced to accept an impending cold event, but he is still hanging on to his warmist dogma. So it looks, to me, that just like all warmist propoganda these days, he’s covering all possible bases.

    • Johnthe1st says:

      The oldest legal principal on the books “Anus Protectus”

    • Fred Furkenburger says:

      TomO I would suggest that you are wrong to accuse David Archibald as a “warmist”. CO2 is recognised as a greenhouse gas albeit a very weak one compared to say H2O. He is just suggesting that although CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is increasing the “activity” of the sun far overpowers what ever warming CO2 contributes. I would take his statement as just saying to warmist followers “while you can claim correctly that CO2 is warming the world there are far more powerful forces at play which makes any contribution of CO2 insignificant”.

      • SNOW says:

        I agree with your statement sir.

      • TomO says:

        Perhaps you choose not to look at the chart which specifically shows carbon dioxide driven warming. You say it IS a green house gas and definitely heats the atmosphere? That is truly news to me. There has been more information suggesting that while carbon dioxide technically is a green house gas, its overall effect tends not to heat the atmosphere. Have you not seen the charts and the data that shows that carbon dioxide lags the temperature rise, not leads it? The chart he displayed, assuming the one at the top of this topic is from his article, clearly gives the opposite impression, thus it is warmist dogma, not science. If you use warmist dogma, you are a warmist. This article only admits that we are entering a cold period – ice age, large or small – but it clearly does not fly against the AGW religion of carbon dioxide overheating the planet.

    • Bone Idle says:

      I don’t think that David Archibald said “in spite of carbon dioxide global warming”
      at all. This quote emanates from the Swedes and Norwegians.

  7. C. Peter Davis says:

    We have had Global Cooling for at least 5 years already!

  8. Rhys Jaggar says:

    We’ll see.

  9. qf says:

    Yes its still warmist dogma keep the MSM and the public treated like mushrooms, fed on BS and kept in the dark (ages). CO2 has no effect on temperatures at all. No GHGs, they dont exist.

  10. John McC says:

    A drop of 5C would mean winters in the UK akin to the big freeze of 1962-63 EVERY winter. As someone who lived through that one, I feel sorry for those around in 2040. Average summer temperatures in the UK would be in the range 7C-13C. The affects on agriculture will be catastrophic.

  11. Steven Rowlandson says:

    CO2 is a relatively heavy gas and would be in its highest concentrations near or below ground level.
    Therefore there could not be enough CO2 in the upper atmosphere to make a difference to the climate when it comes to trapping heat.
    That just leaves variations in solar radiation and variations in air pressure ,density and the milankovich cycles as being the determining factors when it come to heating or cooling of the atmosphere. The best case scenario is that we have a little ice age the worst case is that what might look like a little ice age is actually the initial phase of a big ice age. This is something most people are not ready for mentaly or physicly.

  12. KellyJ says:

    The only bad thing about Seattle, Chicago, and NYC becoming uninhabitable is all those morons will end up moving south and ruining that part of the country too.
    Although looking at the way NYC ws totally unprepared for Sandy (despite a weeks warning) all those people will end up freezing to death while waiting for a Government that is incapable and unready to handle that magnitude of an emergency.

    • D.Carter says:

      Those morons include american heroes and thousands of hard working folks who have lost so much! You’re the real moron! you ignorant insensitive dope! Try thinking before speaking for a change!

  13. Richard D says:

    So far, the warmist alarmists have controlled the terms of the debate. Thanks to people like Archibald and his fellow courageous scientists whose work is referenced in this paper, new words are emerging that carry powerful, irrefutable ideas.

    There is now an undeniable correlation between solar cycle length and temperature. There is another proven correlation between cosmic ray flux and clouds.

    It’s time to toss aside the warmist propaganda and insist on uncovering the truth about what’s going on. It isn’t too late to save the human race but it won’t happen unless there is consensus about what the real determinants of climate are, starting with the sun. “The truth shall set you free.”

    • F. Guimaraes says:

      Great words. It’s also time to start studying seriously, scientifically, the meaning of all the multitude of solar cycles.
      They seem to be at the center of all this.
      They are most probably connected with the movement of the solar system through the Milk Way and will probably lead to a review of the formation of the solar system and astrophysics as well.
      Colder climates seem good for good science: we had Isaac Newton and the laws of Mechanics and Gravitation during the Mauder Minimum, Michael Faraday and the laws of the EM field in the Dalton Minimum and Relativity and Q. Physics during the major solar minimum of the beginning of the XX century!
      Maybe the new minimum will bring us some inspiration about these very important topics.

  14. F. Guimaraes says:

    All the theory in the same page, thank you so much! :-)

  15. Jay Curtis says:

    The past and the present are keys to the future.

    I’ve watched over the past few years and noticed that the heaviest areas of snow in the lower 48 each winter tend to crowd the black demarcation line on Robert’s ice age map. (Not every year of course, but with some consistency year by year.) While abundant moisture falls as snow each winter in the northern tier states, it’s important to realize that one of the driest places on Earth is the Antarctic icecap, despite all the ice and snow locked up there.

    Where I live in the Colorado Springs area there are a lot of old, stabilized sand dunes. They have just a thin veneer of vegetation covering them. However, just a few miles away in the mountains there’s evidence of glaciation everywhere. I suspect that once the glaciers reached their greatest extent, things got pretty dry.

    In Nebraska there are hundreds of miles of old, stabilized dunes in the center of the state just south of the demarcation line for glacial extent. You can see these dunes clearly from the air when you fly over the state. They are called the “Sand Hills.” In the not too distant past, ice was plentiful while desert took over in many places, obviously because the water became locked up in icecaps and glaciers.

    If you want a clue to what the future could be like, just look at the past and realize that these patterns are still with us and have always been, only to greater and lesser degrees.

    Finding enough food in the future will be tough. People who think global warming is the big Boogey Man, really haven’t thought it through or paid much attention to things.

    Maybe the change won’t come too suddenly.

  16. Andy B says:

    The new hockystick graph nobody wants to see!!

  17. CraigRead says:

    The Warmists will inform us long before temps drop that the trace chemical Co2 or man’s ‘pollution’ of Gaia is the reason for plunging temps. The last major ice age will be blamed on neolithic fires… Ergo they will say they were right all along….it seems that GloblaoneyCooling from the 70s has more veracity than GlobaloneyWarming from the 80s and 90s….. never under estimate the stupidity of the mass. See Islam, Nazism and Communism for more details.

  18. TC says:

    It’s all political. When Obama was elected, he promised to lower the sea levels and LO, the sea levels went down. To get a carbon tax, he’ll promise to lower the temperature and LO, it will happen. Maybe if we asked him to promise to disappear …

  19. katy says:

    What most refuse to acknowledge is that it was unlikely that ANYBODY could have beaten the voter fraud planned and perpetrated by the Obama machine. They seem to prefer pointing fingers, blaming Romney and blathering on about Patraeus’ sex life- a diversion.

    Massive list of voter fraud uncovered here:

    http://www.ObamaVoterFraud.com

    SOMALIANS brought to Ohio voting stations by the busload, 95% of whom did not speak English, and told to vote for Obama- straight Dem ticket- https://www.facebook.com/lori.patriot/posts/404694619604138

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=LbOtYQceBxI

    What you can do:

    http://thecompetentconservative.com/elections-have-not-yet-been-certified-heres-what-you-can-do/

    http://theobamafile.com/indexArchive.html

    The United States Library of Congres has selected TheObamaFile.comfor inclusion in itshistoric collection
    of Internet materials http://theobamafile.com/LibraryOfCongress.html

  20. Richard D says:

    When the results of the first Greenland ice core drillings were announced in the 1970s, the headlines focused on the suddenness of the changes from cold to hot and back again. They talked about transitions taking hundreds of years.

    Then, there were more discoveries that indicated that the change from hot to cold took decades, not centuries. Some powerful evidence even suggested that the changes happened overnight (The Day After Tomorrow scenario).

    It still isn’t clear how long it takes or what the exact conditions are that usher in a new glacial advance, but those are the kinds of questions we should be spending millions finding answers to.

    Those answers might even help to wake up the sleeping herd.


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