Global cooling predicted for the next 30 years

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“The general trend is now a cooling towards the next ice age.”

Global cooling predicted for the next 30 years

By Jonathan DuHamel

Dr. Norman Page says that “The earth is entering a cooling phase which is likely to last about 30 years and possibly longer.” See his detailed analysis here.

Page’s prediction is based on observation of the geologic record. He notes that there has been no net warming since 1997 even thought carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere has risen 8.5%. Page says that atmospheric temperature is driven by sea surface temperature (SST) which is, itself, solar driven.

The oceanic oscillations control the general climate. There is good correlation between solar cycles and SST, but note that because of the enthalpy and thermal inertia of the oceans, there is a 10 – 12 year lag between solar cycle troughs and global SSTs. This lag time definitely establishes cause and effect similar to the lag in carbon dioxide changes following temperature changes in the major glacial cycles as shown in ice cores.

The graph below shows the variations in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the major oceanic oscillation (the red line is actual measurement, the blue line is predictive modeling.) (Graph source here.)

Page says than in the figure “an approximate 60 year cycle is obvious by inspection and this coincides well with the 30 year +/- positive (warm) and 30year +/- negative (cold) phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.”

The graph “shows warming from about 1910 to 1940-45, cooling from then to about 1975, warming to about 2003-5 and cooling since then. Total warming during the 20th century was about 0.8 degrees C.” He also says that it is clear that we are entering the beginning of a 30-year cool phase of the PDO.

Page goes on to say:

“The major ice age climate cycles are controlled by the sun – earth orbital eccentricity, and the earth’s obliquity and precession. These cycles are approximately 100,000, 41,000 and 21,000 years in length respectively and are well documented in the ice core and geological record. It is useful to keep in mind that the warmest temperatures in the current interglacial occurred about 7500+/- years ago and the general trend is now a cooling towards the next ice age.”

“These long term cycles are modulated by quasi cyclic trends in solar activity which may be decadal, centennial, or millennial in length. Of particular interest in deciding where we are with regard to the solar cycles is the approximately 1000 +/- year cycle which produced successively the Roman Warm Period, the Dark Ages, the Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age and the recent 20th century warming.”

These cycles are shown in the 2,000-year temperature reconstruction below (the white line is the smoothed curve):

Page says that “A reasonable case can be made that the warming peaks of a 60 year PDO cycle and the 1000 year solar cycle coincided at 2000 +/- and we are likely on the cooling slope of both.”

For a broader view, the graph below shows a temperature reconstruction for the past 11,000 years:

In his conclusion, Page says “Often the signal for a climate direction change is a see-saw effect between Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. The Arctic is still reflecting the peak in the warming trend with low summer ice values. The first indication of a cooling event is however the increase in Antarctic sea ice which has already occurred.” (See my post: The Arctic-Antarctic seesaw)

Page is not alone is his prediction. Two years ago I reported that NASA was also predicting a cooling period based on the same natural parameters. (See NASA Says Earth Is Entering A Cooling Period).

If this predicted cooling trend comes to pass, it will show, once again, that the forces of natural variation easily overcome the weak warming effect of carbon dioxide. And, by the way, if indeed the predicted cooling trend proceeds, atmospheric carbon dioxide will decrease because a cooler ocean can absorb more carbon dioxide.

This phase shift has some policy implications. It shows that curbing carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels is unnecessary and perhaps contraindicated. If you believe that such emissions do have a significant effect on global temperature, we should continue and perhaps even increase emissions to forestall or lessen the effect of the cooling trend lest we find ourselves in another “little ice age.”

Copyrighted by Jonathan DuHamel. Reprint is permitted provided that credit of authorship is provided and linked back to the source.


Thanks to Rich Allen and Mike McEvoy for this link

Hello Robert,
   I have been following your Ice Age Now website for several years and it is one of the best. I also enjoyed the two books you wrote that I recently ordered.
   You might be interested in an article that appeared today in the Tucson Citizen predicting 30 years of cooling. The article by Jonathan DuHamel was published today (Nov. 20, 2012) and includes information found in other articles but it is well written and easy for the non-scientist to understand.
   It looks like we will have four more years of carbon dioxide warming the earth in spite of what the thermometers say. Keep up the good work and spreading the real truth.
Rich Allen



22 thoughts on “Global cooling predicted for the next 30 years”

  1. (…) the general trend is now a cooling towards the next ice age.”

    That would be wrong. We have just started on a journey out of the last ice age and the next one is not due for another few 10`s to several 100`s of millions of years.

    Interglacial, that happens on a continuous basis and should be regarded “noise”. That what is meant here?

    Even short-term 100,000 years cycles which have brought mankind about, a mankind which will have developed into something entirely different and perhaps a bit more intelligent then the current halfwitted species within the next 100,000 year cycle, are noise.

    Gimme solar-earth distances over several galaxial revolutions, and we`ll talk climate statistics…


    1. You seem to be mistaking ice ages for ice epochs. Ice epochs are long periods marked by continental glaciations lasting around 100,000years,periodically broken by interglacial lasting around 12,000 years. We are currently in the Holocene interglacial. There is _no_ indication that we have left the ice epoch, and that there will be no more glacial advances.

      Comparing the major ice epochs with plate techtonics, ice epochs seem to coincide with a land mass at the south pole and blocked equitorial ocean currents. Completely ice free eras coincide with an open ocean at the south pole, and a whole-circumference-of-the-Earth equitorial current.

  2. somewhat OT

    “A number of times over the past one billion years, the Earth’s surface has “wandered” relative to its rotational axis – before returning to its original position. Now, a team of geophysicists from the US and Canada says it has developed a theory that explains this curious phenomenon of “oscillatory true polar wander”. Understanding the mechanics behind polar wander is crucial, as a shift could tip the Earth over by as far as 50° over a period of 10–100 million years and this would cause profound global environmental and geological changes.”


  3. Never forget that according to ice core data the last millennium 1000 – 2000 AD has been the coolest of the current benign Holocene interglacial period.

    See the Inconvenient Sceptic John Kehr figures 65 and 71.

  4. THe 60 year cycle is part of the SBC (solar barycenter) AM (angular momentum) modulation and coupled with the moons orbit. http://landscheidt.wordpress.com/2011/11/10/scafettas-new-paper-linking-mid-latitude-aurora-to-the-60-year-temperature-cycle/
    Also The gas giants (4 outer planets of large mass) modulate the entire solar-system. What would be great if there can be measurements of past climates on Mars the only planet that would exhibit similar features to Earth even with the misfit atmosphere (7mb SP).If Mars follows Earth in cooling and warming phases then thats the holy grail of climate solar proof IMO.

  5. In swedish media, we hear since some days ago about a 6-8 temperature rise in the near future because a certain Bank said so. They never tell us what bank! Swedish Radio (SR) ridicules all disagreeing people calling to them for going against something they call ‘science’.

  6. The figures we are talking here about are quite simple . The sun is heating the earth with an approx 500 watts per square metre , heating the earth with approx 300 degrees Kelvin or Celsius.
    The expected cooling because of less solar radiation is estimated at 6 watts per square netre , slightly more than 1 percent > Even our CO2 apostle Michael Mann calculated a maximum influence of CO2 of 0,6 watts per square metre equal to dozens of atomic bombs , adding only 1 promille to the solar influence , except that completely natural accelration processes remain a mistery and may cause a more rapid cooling than foreseen . We are living in exiting times .

      1. Ok- you meant strictly infra-red, but that is too simplistic. Some molecules absorb higher frequency radiation, which increases kinetic energy, and they transfer that energy via collision to other molecules that can radiate IR.

  7. What that chart really shows is that a big ice age is about due since the average interglacial is about 11,500 years long. Next to that problem a cold cycle in the PDO or a little ice age is merely an inconvenience.

  8. another scientist say a new ice age, little or big, is about to kick in, so it must be true…prepare for the worst.


  10. Page mentions oceantemps driven by the solar force, but he omits to mention widespread submerged volcanism and radiationheat from the Earth’s center as a major factor in oceantemps and climate modification.
    As Robert explained in his books, increased humidity from the warming oceans contributes to a real greenhousefactor, more precipitation and ultimately increased ice build-up at the poles,ultimately paving the way for a new iceage period imo.

    1. John,
      The first graph starts at 1870 which is relatively little time to observe a true trend. The second graph in black shows a true trend over 2000 years. The trend is progressing slowly downward. If it continues, and I think it will, at some point it will crash because snow cover will take over. In other words, the more snow that remains through summer seasons will reach a point of no return and then you will have a true ice age. I agree with the author that the sun ultimatley controls the climate here on earth and elsewhere. We are at a solar minimum like no one alive today has ever seen. But history shows that there is a correlation between a weak solar period and a cooler climate. The last two such events were the Maunder and Dalton Minimums which could be looked at as one cooling event that lasted a couple hundred years. Of course there were warm bumps but the trend during that period was downward. If solar cycle 25 turns out to be a bust, we are definatley looking at long term cooling if history tells us anything. Look at the long term trends. Every time we’ve had a warming period it is always followed by sharp cooling. But the longer term trend is downward for the last 2000 years.

      Best Regards

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