Variations in Total Solar Irridiance

Russian Scientist — New Little Ice Age Near

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Forecasting a temperature drop in approximately 2014

Dr Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of space research at Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in St. Petersburg, Russia, is suggesting the next Grand Minimum in this paper: Bicentennial Decrease of the Total Solar Irradiance Leads to Unbalanced Thermal Budget of the Earth.

“From early 90s we observe bicentennial decrease in both the TSI and the portion of its energy absorbed by the Earth,” says Abdussamatov. “The Earth as a planet will henceforward have negative balance in the energy budget which will result in the temperature drop in approximately 2014.”

See more charts:
Thanks to Andrew S for this link

‘New Little Ice Age to begin in 2014’

I was lucky enough to be sitting just ten feet away from Dr. Abdussamatov as he made this startling assertion at the Heartland Institute’s 4th International Conference on Climate Change in Chicago in May 2010.

See entire article:

By the way, this is not just “any” scientist.

In addition to his work as head of Space Research of the Sun Sector at the Pulkovo Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences, astrophysicist Dr Habibullo Abdussamatov is also head of the Russian segment of the International Space Station.

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37 thoughts on “Russian Scientist — New Little Ice Age Near”

  1. Rosco, I live exactly at 27S latitude in Brazil and here´s a pleasant 21C at noon ! I remember November 15th (holiday here) to be much hotter than this normally.

  2. Bruce,

    Thank you for the links. DeJaeger is well worth listening to so I am going through one paper at the first link:

    Sudden transitions and grand variations in the solar dynamo,past and future.

    It does seem that the authors are backing the return to regular oscillations but also state:

    This ambivalence makes it impossible to decide at this point whether or not we are at present witnessing the start of another episode of Regular
    Oscillations as seems to be suggested by the left-hand diagram or whether we experience the start of a Grand Minimum (righthand diagram).

    The model it seems has insufficient data as yet but perhaps gives us some hope that things might not be as bad as a Maunder minimum. This has to be good news as I have always found Warmists rather tasteless.

  3. «Not just Russia – the UK and Germany have large populations which will need to relocate.»
    If it’s a liltle ice age they will not need to relocate but if it’s the big thing it’s another thing…

    1. As Robert and others have pointed out, even a Little Ice Age (LIA) will produce massive food shortages. The rural populations of the northern countries will lose their livelihoods because food production will plunge – partly because of cooler growing seasons but mostly because of crop destruction by the wild weather which accompanies a LIA. Doubtless they will initially migrate to their local towns and cities, but eventually they will need to head south because the urban population will not be able to feed them. Food shortages mean MUCH higher prices. The global economy is pants, and will only get worse in a LIA. Eventually the urban masses will be going hungry as well as cold – no money for food or fuel. They will see their only hope as migration south for food and warmth. You don’t need glaciation for this scenario – just a few bad harvests and the odd cold winter. Don’t be fooled into thinking that a LIA will not be bad just because there won’t be mass glaciation. Most wholesale food prices have already risen by 25% to 75% with the last few years of poor weather. When people cannot grow their own food (bad weather, don’t have land), and can afford neither food nor heat, they will move.

      1. Modern technology has not been around to measure a climate swap,with regards to northern hemi freeze. So,a more southern lattitude may switch to a savanna or desert itself not suitable to grow enough grain or staple of mans existance??The Mayans demise is said to have been crop failure,I read and watch African countrys in warm lattitudes strugling starving,waring over food now!So,we lose Canadas or Ukraines grain belt,India. They will be bulldozing bodies into mass graves,last comment just an opinion.

        1. 80 percent of Australia is desert now,its warm but that in itself does not guarantee food security,good soil,grain belt or any change in future climate for the better. Canadian inuits in the north do not starve with millions of seals ready for the taking,its not bout grain either.

  4. Oh, come on! How can you believe scientist with 20 years experience, i’ts ridiculous… Only Al Gore is right, everything he says is undisputed truth! After all, he’s a politician …and you can always trust them!

  5. My fellow slav bratko hope he wasn’t into the vodka… just kidding, he holds many credentials to his name. Robert has conversed with him and he is the real deal when it comes to climate change in the field of cooling. I myself do not wish for an iceage but if science can predict an orbit such as Halley did, that comet revisits near earth every 70 odd years from his observations. That prediction was made a very long time ago with low tech I wonder if this well respected Russian with high tech and no bias opinion(honesty) will follow in the footsteps of past legends of science. A couple years is not far away. Start stocking a cache,ya never know.

  6. I make the big turndown in global temperature to start in 2015. By 2020 it will be getting unpleasant and really bad by 2035. Even the combined efforts of the BBC and met office will struggle to convince us that cold equals warm. It will be too late by then of course to provide for the lean years. That chance has gone courtesy of the warmists. I hope they taste good, the warmists that is!

  7. If this comes about I propose we gather up all the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming alarmists and forcibly ship them to the Antarctic – after all that is where the last few pairs of breeding humans will be found and the more the merrier I say !

    What better reward for their self sacrificing devotion to open and frank advancement of science – they deserve to be among the first shipped to the last habitable place on the planet.

  8. Russia & other countries will be coming down from the North, do you reckon? But not to worry–we have Algore! Fiddlin

    1. Not just Russia – the UK and Germany have large populations which will need to relocate. But before the need to relocate will be the food wars because food production will crash in a Little Ice Age – unless the Sahara regains it’s ancient productivity by becoming wetter. Even then, I think there’ll be massive food shortages. And whilst the rich countries will initially be able to pay much higher prices for food (at the expense of starving peoples in poorer countries) that will be a big economic drain. When the cold damages the northern infrastructure, the northern economies will crash even further than they already have, and hunger will be commonplace. Millions of desperate and hungry people with millions of soldiers, and weapons of mass destruction at their disposal. I think I’d rather take my chances with the ice!

  9. The U.S. is going into this new cold epoch totally unprepared thanks to our so called “leaders” in Washington and the U.N. collectivists. The U.S. should be building dozens of new coal-fired power plants to provide electricity for heat in the coming decades yet the Oh-bummer administration is hell-bent on shutting down coal plants. I do not think wind or solar will do the job during a little ice age. You can be assured that the “elites” will be warm and cozy though.

  10. I knew we didn’t want to leave Panama for Europe. If there were just any decent jobs there….sigh. All of these “scientists” that have pushed the warming religion on the globe have led to overwhelming unpreparedness for the coming cold. I think we’re headed for a world of hurt.

  11. Interesting. Russianized Arabic / Turkic name. His people know very well about how bad cooling can be, they were literally at the core of “The Age of Migrations.”


    De Jager recently changed his expectation for a Grand Minimum because of the Hallstatt cycle, anticipating instead a “Regular Oscillation” as occurred during 1724-1924. He expects no Grand Minimum for the current millennium.

    However, a period of mid-latitude cooling and increasing precipitation associated with the convergence of Gleissberg and de Vries/Suess cycles is certainly possible, if not indicated as probable over the course of the next 2-3 solar cycles hereafter, or longer.

    The potential cooling phase will coincide with Peak Oil (peak rate and level of extraction of cheap, easily accessible, high-EROI crude oil that allows for growth of real GDP per capita, which is no longer the case since ’00-’01 and ’05-’08); falling oil exports; population overshoot (population has accelerated to a doubling time of just 40 years since the 1960s); peak Boomer demographic drag effects on housing and consumer spending; global fiscal restraints from debt/GDP and Boomers drawing down on elder transfer programs; and the first “global” real estate depression since the 1890s (not counting the property destruction associated with WW II), which was the onset of the peak Fossil Fuel age that peaked in the 1970s-80s in the US and is now about to fall off the plateau globally.

  13. Indeed, Dr. Abdussamatov is no crank, and no ordinary critic of the AGW premise.

    The startling implications of what he says happening, with its appx timeframe window, will shake the entire global economy. One can already see the sunspot cycles going back past the two 11 year patterns, have been altered, the current one considerably.

    For sure, predictions that involve very precise timeframes, are always risky, especially about such a complex system as the weather. But it’s comforting to know, there are those of high scientific credentials & integrity willing to standup and call “BullS**t!” on this mad rush to the AGW megamind.

  14. From what I see, we are not going to have just a Little Ice Age.
    We are heading towards the real Ice Age with terrible consequences such as grand scale human depopulation due to lack of food.

  15. Interestingly enough, NASA scientists are forbidden to publicly discuss the possibilities of the climate change and superstorm depicted in the movie The Day After Tomorrow.

    This is because NASA knows the oceans are heating, the atmosphere is cooling, the arctic ice is melting, soon the gulf stream will shut down, the jet stream will weaken, sending cold air south creating the superstorm as the one seen in the movie. If they discuss it, they will lose thier funding.

    1. Alex, whilst I agree with the broad thrust of you comment, I don’t think I can agree with your “the arctic ice is melting” ‘cos this is unsubstantiated. Any Arctic ice loss so far has been only temporary, and mostly an artifact of warm winds breaking up the sea ice and piling it up on itself, not a significant loss of ice mass. Some areas may have seen some thinning, but that has happened before, even in my lifetime – see pictures of submarines breaking through ice near the north pole. Plus other parts of the Arctic are showing an increase in ice mass. The Antarctic has more ice now than at any other time since records began.

      From the wealth of recent (and older) studies, it seems obvious that our climate – and our ice caps – have always varied significantly over time, even within warm periods like we’ve just experienced, and also within Little Ice Age periods like we’re just entering, and certainly within full blown Ice Ages. What the warmists have done is assume our climate should be constant, become alarmed when it isn’t, viewed it as “change” rather than variation, assumed therefore that something must be wrong, and grabbed onto a stupid candidate for the cause – CO2.

      The other changes you mention will probably happen. No organisation should gag their scientists from being objective and discussing such possibilities. But unfortunately that’s not the world we live in.

      Best wishes, Nick

  16. :-) taking your advice and from the looking into it elsewhere as well, I have stocked up on strong shoes waterproofs and a lot of woollen clothing and blankets:-) as well as buying cold tolerant seeds.
    its nearly mid Nove,ber in Aus and a fire tonight would be nice, its NOT warm at all at night, seedlings are well behind time in germinating etc due to cool soils. doubt I will get tomatos before feb at best instead of before xmas. melons etc nope.

    1. As a fellow Aussie I’m interested where you live – sounds like firther south than me. I’m in Caloundra near Brisbane at 27 degrees S.

      In November 1968 (still Spring) I was sitting for examinations at the Gap in Brisbane.

      Our school had no air conditioning nor even ceiling fans.

      One day the temperature in the room topped 100 F or for most of the day – it was hell trying to do a technical drawing exam in weather like that I can tell you.

      I examined as many records as I could find and that yeas was the maximum November temperature I could find at 38.6 C officially. That station understated the temperature as it was close to Moreton Bay where the temperatures were always a few degrees cooler than inland like the Gap.

      The next record November I could find was 1980 at slightly less.

      I have thought that whilst overall the temperatures may have increased slightly over the last 40 years the highest were still in the past.

      2009 seemed to be the last obviously warm year with a day in mid August – still Winter – reaching over 31 C here.

      2010, 11 and 12 were way cooler than 2009 no matter what the “officials” claim.

      1. I have lived 35 of my 40 years in Cairns north Queensland and work as a concreter. The last 2 summers we have had have been very mild compared to summers past. This global warming bullshit, the lies and deceit by the global politicians is all about using fear to steal more money from people already struggling to pay energy bills. Its just another tax on the scale of the GST.

  17. Can’t help wondering if this is why both the current LibDem Con (pun intended) UK government and the previous UK Labour government won’t tolerate any discussion on scrapping Trident. Will it be used as a threat to ensure us northern people can move south to warmer climes? Countries which of course are already populated and who might object to taking us in. Memories of the Nazis’ Lebensraum.

    Or is it just that successive governments have sold their souls to the arms industries and want to keep taxpayers’ money flowing their way? I suspect both.

    And before anyone bleats on about all the jobs Trident creates many, many more jobs could be created by spending the money elsewhere, or simply leaving the money in taxpayers’ pockets so it stimulates the economy rather than feeding the excessive profits of these parasitic arms companies – and their bankster owners.

    Whatever the truth, even a little Ice Age will devastate populations – IT IS CRIMINAL THAT POLITICIANS ARE WASTING MONEY ON UNNECESSARY ARMS, “GREEN TAXES” AND WIND FARMS when we are facing such devastation. And it is CRIMINAL that the BBC and other mainstream media are totally biased in their reporting of Global Warming. Their actions perpetuate the Climate Con which could kill so many people. Let’s hope people begin to realise what is happening and governments and media are brought to justice for their criminal propagandising.

  18. Nothing startling about it really. Geoff Smith of Landscheidt has been saying so for years and so have others – in particular some site whose title depicts exactly this. I can’t quite recall the name LOL.

    The difference between the Russians and Landscheidt is in the length of time. Landscheidt says we will be back on track for growing cacti in the Great Irish Desert by the year 2060 and will be rid of the water-loving plants weeds we currently have. This is not long enough to rid the planet of warmists as some will survive until that time.

    If the Ruskies are right and it lasts for 100 years then there is a chance that all warmists will be dead and gone and the history books will record what a complete disaster they were, as a warning to future generations not to let science get tainted by commerce.

    1. Book? what’s a book?
      Printed matter is going the way of electronic these days, and no electricity means no ebooks, and if the ink is frozen how are they gonna print and on what paper from trees under ice…

      Hard times could be a comin’…

  19. Well ha has pretty good credentials. Its really interesting that the best science about so called ‘climate change’ (to a LIA of course) comes NOT from idiot climate (so called) scientists but Astrophysicists. Methinks its because its the SUN stupid. An all controlled by the solar system. Its pretty obvious to these guys they just need the data (real of course).

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