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“The National Weather Service in Binghamton NY calls for 2” to 4″ per hour snow rates, and their Hi Res models show “Scary” snow amounts of 30-50,” says reader Ralph Fato
“However, they feel a foot is more realistic.”
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY… WED OCT 23 2013
[quote]BUFKIT SUGGESTS LAKE EFFECT CLD TOPS UP TO 25 KFT INDICATIVE OF A LITTLE THUNDER…ESPECIALLY IN NW ONEIDA CO. I CUD SEE SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR
IN THE MAIN LES SNOW BAND EASILY. HOWEVER…NRN ONEIDA WILL BE AT THE VERY SOUTH END OF THIS BAND. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BULK OF THE LES BAND STAYS TO THE NORTH…SPARING NRN ONEIDA FROM WARNING CRITERIA SNOW.
HI RES WRF ARW AND WRF NMM ARE SCARY AND HAVE RIDICULOUS SNOW AMNTS RUNNING FROM 30-50 INCHES WITH THIS BAND!! I
AM UNFAMILIAR WITH THE QPF AND SNOW AMNTS FOR LAKE EFFECT WITH THESE TWO MODELS…SO THEY CUD BE WAY OFF. THE HI RES CMC HAS 10-20 INCHES WITH THE NAM ALSO IN THIS RANGE. ANALOG CASES SUGGEST 12 INCHES OR SO IN THE MAIN BAND. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE IF THIS BAND SINKS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH INTO NRN ONEIDA TO PRODUCE WARNING AMNTS.
MY EXPERIENCE WITH THESE SET-UPS IS THAT THE MODELS OFTEN BRING THE LES BAND TOO FAR SOUTH…PROBABLY UNDERESTIMATING THE DIABATIC HEATING EFFECTS ON THE LL PRESSURE FIELDS FROM THE WARMER LAKE WATERS. THIS HAS THE EFFECT OF BACKING THE LL FLO MORE TO THE SW.
SO FOR NOW WILL HAVE AN LES ADVY TO COVER FOR NRN ONEIDA WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE BULK OF THE LES BAND STAYS TO THE NORTH OF NRN ONEIDA CO. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS BAND AND IF IT SINKS FARTHER SOUTH AND TRULY BECOMES AS ORGANIZED AS THE MODELS
SUGGEST…A SHORTER FUSED LES WARNING WILL BE NEEDED FOR NRN ONEIDA CO.[/quote]
Thanks to Ralph Fato for this link
I receive no funding from any company, corporation, or organization. Thanks, Robert
Good news!A publisher in Italy has now translated Not by Fire but by Ice into Italian.