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“Sharp cooling” to hit in the next five years, says new solar theory.


“If the Sun mainly controls the temperature on Earth, a turning point is almost upon us,” says Dr David Evans. “The reason for the cooling is the dramatic fall in solar radiation that started around 2004.”

There is a delay — probably of around 11 years —  between changes in sunlight and temperatures on Earth, says Evans.

Because of that delay, and the sudden drop in solar irradiance about 10 years ago, Evans expects a sharp cooling to hit in the next five years.

Evans provides a graph of solar radiation since 1610, when sunspots were first recorded. The brown line shows solar radiation, which peaks about every 11 years due to the sunspot cycle. The red line is an 11-year smoother.


total-solar-irradiance


“There have been three big, steep falls in solar radiation in the last 400 years,” says Evans.

“The first was in the 1600s. It led to the depths of the Little Ice Age, and the Maunder Minimum. This was the coldest period during the last 400 years. There used to be fairs on the ice in the Thames River in London, because it would freeze over for weeks at a time.

“The second fall is around the time of Napoleon and it preceded the second coldest period in the last 400 years, called the Dalton Minimum.

“The third fall occurred recently, starting in about 2004. This recent fall is as big as the fall in Napoleon’s time, almost as large as the fall in the 1600s, and it seems to be steeper than either of those falls. But the temperature hasn’t fallen … yet.

“Around the world a billion dollars a day is invested in renewable energy, largely with the hope of changing the weather,” says the joannenova.com.au website. Given that 20% of the world does not even have access to electricity, history books may marvel at how screwed priorities were, and how bureaucratized science cost so much more than the price of the grants.

And yet, says joannenova, our five-star politicians are preparing only for global warming.

See entire article:
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/06/big-news-viii-new-solar-model-predicts-imminent-global-cooling/

Thanks to Tony Rango for this link

 

44 Responses to Global cooling imminent

  1. John says:

    then mix in some volcanoes and yikes

  2. One item to remember is this period of below normal solar activity started in 2005 so the accumulation factor is coming into play.
    Secondly it is not just solar activity within itself but the secondary effects associated with solar variability which I feel are extremely hard to predict as far as how strongly (to what degree)they may change and thus effect the climate in response to long prolonged minimum solar activity.
    I strongly suspect the degree of magnitude change of the prolonged minimum solar activity combined with the duration of time of the prolonged minimum solar activity is going to have a great impact as to how EFFECTIVE the associated secondary effects associated with prolonged minimal solar activity may have on the climate. An example would be an increased in volcanic activity.To make it more complicated could thresholds come about? An example would be a changing atmospheric circulation pattern which may promote more snow cover/cloud cover and thus increase the earth’s albedo. How will the initial state of the climate play into it? An example of this would be the great amounts of excess Antarctica Sea Ice the globe has presently and how this might play out going forward under a very long period of prolonged minimum solar activity. Will climatic outcomes unknown come out of this?

    Then one has to consider where the earth is in respect to Milankovitch Cycles (favorable )and how the earth’s magnetic field may enhance or moderate solar activity.

    Given all of that I think at best only general trends in the climate can be forecasted going forward. I am confident enough to say in response to prolonged minimum solar activity going forward the temperature trend for the globe as a whole will be down. The question is how far down /how rapid will the decline be? I really do not have the answer because there are just to many UNKNOWNS. Further when you have unknowns in a system like the climate which is non linear, random and chaotic expect surprises.

    NOTE: Ocean heat content could slow down the temperature fall at first. In regards to that I look first for more extremes in the climate due to low solar activity followed by a more pronounced drop in temperature as time goes by.

    Still I believe year 2014 is the turning point for global temperatures as the maximum of solar cycle 24 comes to an end.

  3. Stranger says:

    The reason the temperature has not fallen in lockstep with solar irradiance is the vast heat sink called the oceans. When solar radiation rises, the oceans absorb more heat, when solar irradiance falls and temperatures drop, the oceans act as a “reactance,” releasing heat energy to maintain the earth’s temperature at a stable level.

    But there is a limit to the amount of energy the oceans can release – so my estimate is for the real cooling begin in 2016. We shall see what we shall see, but what we shall see will not be warming.

  4. RAH says:

    The second year after the summer Arctic sea ice extent remains significantly above the mean. And at the same time the Antarctic extent remains well above the mean during the summer months as it did this year then I will be concerned about global cooling.

    It seems to this layman that cooling and warming is not so much about recorded high temps or low temps during the summer months even if the data is uncorrupted (ie “adjusted”). I believe that the best single indicator is a significant and general lack of “normal” melting during the summer months at both poles for several consecutive years. When that happens then look out. Until then, I just watch the charts looking for those signs.

  5. Jimbob says:

    IMHO it will take another two years for the penny to drop over AGW and the lies told by the Green Climate (so called) Science lobby. It is one thing to clean up true toxic pollutants from water courses, the air and from the land, entirely laudable.
    It is another, to term a breathing byproduct gas of all life on this earth that converts oxygen and carbon based foods into Carbon Dioxide CO2; a pollutant; when it is a fundamental fertilizer of all chlorophyll based plant life and sea based plankton, the basis of the food chain on this planet.
    During all of the preceding solar minimums over the last 5000 years or more, it is famine and disease which have been, and will be the big killers of human kind, and they kill by the 100,000s. Prophetic modern examples are: Biafra, Sudan, Eritrea, East Africa, these events have played out on our TV screens. Fortunately, the wheat harvests of the western world have eventually mitigated these famines. What happens when the wheat harvest in the Northern Hemisphere fails due to the Modern little ice age, and drought affects all of Africa and Asia, as well as a violent religious/water war?
    There will be a reckoning, the warmists had better prepare for a life on the dole, and without pensions, as I believe a fair few have committed fraud in a Public office corrupting the findings of science based measurements, they may end up in Jail, and Governments which have used this propaganda to feather their own spending nests, may find themselves unelectable ever.

  6. Bill says:

    Outstanding post, Robert. Get that place in the Hill Country yet?

    • Robert says:

      Not yet. But I loved it there. Sure looks like a good place to be living as we head into the coming ice age.

  7. Icelord says:

    Our politicians are mega-screwed in the heads.

    • Steven says:

      I downloaded copy of the Satanic Bible and found that the devil, his church and clergy do indeed approve of homosexuality. A cursory check of public policy on the issue will indicate that government, the media, too many women ,too many churches and certainly the elites concur with the satanic bible on that issue. Are they all screwed in the heads? Absolutely and they don’t seem to mind unless it becomes a political issue. They soon go back to their old ways after things die down a bit.
      Perhaps some kind of an ice age might be of some benefit in fixing the problem if it culls the satanists and their fellow travelers.

  8. AJ Virgo says:

    At this point it doesn’t matter to me why there is a delay? A rock sitting in the sun stays warm into the night. The question of how temperature changes on Earth with a reduction in TSI is more important and maybe the fact that the Earth exists well inside the suns Heliosphere so close to such a powerful energy source has something to do with it. Scientists are saying that the drop in TSI is too small to affect us but give me %1 of a Trillion dollars and I will tell you if it makes a difference.

  9. Ian says:

    I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. The fools have convinced the ignorant that burning our food as fuel is wise. Unfortunately, as recent events have shown, there is a surplus of the ignorant and their nefarious manipulators (read politicians and global warming liars). We should have been stockpiling food and fuel. We are sitting on huge reserves of natural energy not requiring plants to build windmills which only work when there is wind, and kill endangered species in their giant meat grinders. And we also have solar collector farms which are amazingly inefficient, produce lots of heat and “global warming” in their environ, block the sun from the underlying land, and require precious water, in desert environments, to be cooled.
    And of course, there is the EPA and its “rules” blocking the use of cheap and efficient coal. We ship boatloads to the rest of the world but cannot use it here. (Buy stock in the shipping companies and railroads. As good as gold.)
    Gonna be an interesting few decades.

  10. qfrealist says:

    Doesnt that graph between 1900 and 2000 remind you of the FAKE ‘CO2 ralated temp increase’ put out by IPCC!
    And I like his words “if mainly caused by the sun..”, no Dr Evans IS ALL caused by the Sun..try turning the Sun off!

  11. Michael says:

    This coming comparative test of the TSI model vs. the CO2 model in the next few years may explain the extreme urgency of the Obama Administration to quickly push through their “global warming” (excuse me, “climate change”) agenda, without any input from Congress. Time is of the essence, and facts don’t matter.

    They have to get their confiscatory rules in place NOW, before the CO2 model is so completely discredited by events (which appears likely) that even Obama’s and the AGW lobby’s cheerleader media will not be able to completely suppress the reality and gravity of the cooling situation. Remember, in Napoleon’s time, there were widespread famines, as crops failed in much of the “temperate” zone.

    However, I may be underestimating the power of the government/media/education complex. They are already re-writing the history of the bitterly cold first 4 months of this year by having flacks at NOAA put out reports about the first part of 2014 being the warmest in 134 years, all of which has been picked up, dutifully, by the propagandists in the media who pose as journalists and regurgitate this swill for the public’s consumption.

    • AJVirgo says:

      I believe there is enough alternative measurement to correct the “adjusted” records we have now and that this will eventually happen however the economic clawback will be onerous and generational.

  12. Tom Dockery says:

    I look at it as having more great walking and running weather.A sharp cooling trend may also slow or reverse immigration to the USA.

  13. Sherry says:

    Hi Robert, will you be publishing an updated edition of Not By Fire but By Ice ? I would immensely look forward to that. Pretty please?

    • Robert says:

      Hi Sherry, I’m sorry, but probably not. Working for $4.00 an hour gets old after awhile.

  14. Jack Hydrazine says:

    Sea level rise less than 1mm for last 125 years in Kattegatt, Europe — Nils-Axel Morner
    http://joannenova.com.au/2014/06/sea-level-rise-less-than-1mm-for-last-125-years-nils-axel-morner/

  15. Jack Hydrazine says:

    Piers Corbyn agrees with your article.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6R26PXRrgds

    Go to about the 40 minute mark to see what he says.

  16. Fleming Kjemtrup Sørensen says:

    Look at the sea ice in Antarctica: more than 2 million sq. km above average! Never happened since at least 1979, when satellite measurements began.
    See http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png

    At the same time, Arctic sea ice is recovering.

    2014, the cooling has certainly begun…

    Flemming K. Sørensen
    Valby, Denmark

  17. JPAK says:

    To be balanced, the extremes of the LIA were sporadic. Blocked weather patterns produced weeks of Arctic air-flow over Europe while other winters saw similarly stuck weather cells which brought weeks of warmer air northward over Eu and the history books report winters in England without a frost.
    Given the convoluted jet-streams of late I suspect we’ll see a repeat pattern with every radical cold event being labeled “climate change” and every warm winter cited as proof of warming.
    No point on trying to win religious arguments.

  18. laurel says:

    Politicians…dont have time????
    to actually get themselves educated enough to make INformed decisions
    advisors who are usually themselves pretty badly educated on the subject, be it warming or many other issues ,hand the head pollie a summary of the limited info theyve bothered to find, lobbyists have a LOT do with with paucity and DIS info there too!
    and that!
    is why WE are in so much Shit!!

  19. Frederick Colbourne says:

    For agriculture in temperate zones, variation in summer precipitation is about as important as variation in temperature in spring and autumn.

    In the tropics variation in precipitation may be more important than temperature.

    R. H. Bryson cited on variation in precipitation in the subtropics (Mediterranean) as critically important to agriculture.

    I wonder what are the implications of Dr Evans and other solar research for precipitation during the next 5-20 years.

  20. AJ Virgo says:

    NSIDC have updated their site to show the current state of the Arctic.

    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

  21. Argiris Diamantis says:

    Don Easterbrook said that the cooling has already commenced. http://blog.heartland.org/2012/06/sorry-global-warming-alarmists-the-earth-is-cooling/
    Open yours eyes, it is snowing in the Pyrenees.
    Autumn temperatures on Sunday with snow in the Pyrenees. Published on June 28, 2014 by Enrique Perez de Eulate. In the Pyrenees will snow around 2000/2200 meters.
    http://blogs.diariodenavarra.es/tiempo-al-tiempo/2014/06/fin-del-calor-y-el-bochorno-esta-tarde-a-la-espera-de-un-domingo-con-nieve-en-el-pirineo/

  22. Nancy says:

    There is a vigorous discussion of this particular theory on Anthony Watts’ website, with both pro and con opinions. Leif Svalgaard and Monckton of Brenchley were going at it hammer and tongs earlier today and last night. It’s a fascinating argument, with a lot of name-calling on the side.

    I wish I knew what to think. The global warmists upset me with their statist rhetoric, demanding I give up my freedom for the good of the planet, especially when I think they are terribly wrong. I just wish something more concrete would emerge which would finally put the lie to their sermons.

    • aprilmay says:

      Thanks for the heads up. Looks like I’m going to be doing a lot of reading. I admire both men.

  23. H.B. Schmidt says:

    The EPA’s claim to regulate GHG’s that was upheld by the SCOTUS last week is predicated upon global warming being due to CO2. If, as this theory predicts, we’re headed in the opposite direction, do we then get our tax monies back from those crooks?

  24. Bill Gannon says:

    Robert, perhaps geologist’s will lead us to the truth. Here’s a link to No Tricks Zone and a presentation by, Dr. Sebastian Lüning, geologist and co-author of “The Neglected Sun“.
    http://notrickszone.com/2014/06/29/german-geologist-ipcc-models-a-failure-have-no-chance-of-success-sees-possible-0-2c-of-cooling-by-2020/

  25. Inquiring says:

    I agree that were headed into a very cold period and the sun controls our climate. For the lat few year I have been reading much and we have a few people that have put to all tougher and we live in an electric universe with plasma fields and yes it sounds way out there, but once you start learning it from their prospective it makes sense and the sun can go dim and cooler and even shut down over night and it’s only the residue heat in that giant ball we call the sun that keeps us from going to minus-100F,
    the electric fields can restart the sun and its plasma fields intermittently. They have proven it can work in lab experiment’s. This all happens in cycles and there is a major cycle that seems to take place once every 120,000. years along with small or shorter cycles in-between like the Maunder, Wolf and Oort solar minima’s and as I understand it we’re a little over due for the 120,000. year major cycle.

    • Tony says:

      I think Robert detailed it best in his first book “So here we sit. The next beat of the the 179-year solar retrograde cycle is due. The next beat of the 360-year cycle is due. The next beat of the 11,500-year ice-age cycle is due. The next beat of the 100,000-year ice age cycle is due…and we’re worried about global warming?”

      While an ice-age would be really bad, my concern is more about a magnetic weakening which is occurring now and the consequences of it.

      Check out Suspicious0bservers for some good videos on the cLIEmate hoax (and much more on the sun) and daily weather/space weather updates along with those impacting storms and earthquakes using the U-Yen System.

  26. Roger u says:

    Its a lot warmer now than it was before the last two drops and solar radiation is still higher than at anytime prior to 1900, so i would guess that the cooling won’t be to Maunder levels.

    The long 400 year climb with occasional dips to present temp levels makes me wonder if it won’t be a long slow decline with occasional warm periods; sort of a mirror image of the climb.

  27. AndrewS says:

    From: A Quick Background To The Last Ice Age
    at: http://www.esd.ornl.gov/projects/qen/nerc130k.html

    Cooling. Though the time at which the Eemian interglacial ended is subject to some uncertainty (it was probably around 110,000 years ago), what does seem evident from the sediment records that cross this boundary is that it was a relatively sudden event and not a gradual slide into colder conditions taking many thousands of years. The recent high-resolution Atlantic sediment record of Adkins et al (1997) suggests that the move from interglacial to much colder-than-present glacial conditions occurred over a period of less than 400 years (with the limitations on the resolution of the sediment record leaving open the possibility that the change was in fact very much more rapid than this).

    Following this initial cooling event, conditions often changed in sudden leaps and bounds followed by several thousand years of relatively stable climate or even a temporary reversal to warmth, but overall there was a decline. Northern forest zones retreated and fragmented as the summers and winters grew colder. Large ice sheets began to grow in the northern latitudes when the snow that fell in winter failed to melt, and instead piled up from one year to the next until it reached thousands of metres in thickness.

    As the cold grew more severe, the Earth’s climate also became drier because the global ‘weather machine’ that evaporates water from the oceans and drops it on the land operates less effectively at colder temperatures and when the polar sea ice is extensive. Even in areas that were not directly affected by the ice sheets, aridity began to cause forests to die and to give way to dry grassland, which requires less water to survive. Eventually, much of the grassland retreated to give way to deserts and semi-deserts, as global conditions reached a cold, dry low point around 70,000 years ago (this is called the Lower Pleniglacial). By this time, most of northern Europe and Canada were covered by thick ice sheets.

    In the short term, we don’t have to worry about runaway heating OR runaway cooling, as nobody alive now will be around should the earth go into ‘Hot-House’ mode, or ‘Ice-House’ mode, both states of which the planet makes repeat visits. But based on the above, once the ice build-up reaches a certain point, nothing will stop a slide into Ice-House conditions.

    • AndrewS says:

      A lot of the Ice-house vs. Hot-house conditions are highly dependent on plate tectonics, where continents are positioned. Continents at the poles are more likely to develop Ice caps, A good example is the North Vs South pole, South has a lot more ice because a continent is centered there. If the North Sea closes up due to tectonics, then it too will start to resemble present day Antarctica. If the Continents begin to converge toward the equator then most likely a Hot-house will ensue. Long Range stuff.

    • AndrewS says:

      Note: (with the limitations on the resolution of the sediment record leaving open the possibility that the change was in fact very much more rapid than this) “this” being 400 yrs. What’s much more rapid? maybe 40yrs? 30? ;)

  28. Steven says:

    I’ll see if I can get an update for the sunspot graph
    for July. With a bit of luck it might be latter in the week.

  29. Indigo says:

    The PTB are in a big hurry to implement more control through climate change aka global warming via Agenda 21 /sustainability crap and other means so when things start to cool,they can claim victory over global warming via their climate control programs.Stupid sheep will totally buy into it.Isn’t gov’t wonderful,they saved us.

  30. AJVirgo says:

    Is it cynicism to invoke the taxi driver stock tipper rule to the Cali drought and say it must be about to break with this article in the UK Telegraph?
    “Mr Barnett predicts it may be a “dead pool” that provides no water by about 2036.”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/10932785/The-race-to-stop-Las-Vegas-from-running-dry.html

  31. For predictions of the timing and extent of the possible future cooling based on the 60 and 1000 year quasi periodical cycles in the temperature data and using the neutron count- 10 Be record as the best proxy for solar :activity” see esp Figs 3,4,5,6,7,8 (esp 8 C and D),9,at
    http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/2013/10/commonsense-climate-science-and.html

  32. Andrew S –It has been shown through ice core data that changes are not gradual like you are suggesting but very rapid and abrupt. Less then 20 years.

    • AndrewS says:

      I’m not saying it’s gradual, the source I cited above did, with the caveat: “…possibility that the change was in fact very much more rapid than this(400 years)”.
      I realize that our climate can turn on a dime – as the saying goes. And in looking at the paleo. temp. record, the temperature drops at ice-age onsets are very steep ones. More like a plunge instead of a drop. The civilized world is going to be caught unawares, especially with all of the hype about CO2 that has been drummed into the heads of so many.

      It is 37F in the north part of Ontario, near Hudson Bay, as I type this. Hudson Bay still has almost 50% sea ice coverage. http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.004.png

  33. Ross says:

    Our politicians know the world is cooling. They bring in carbon tax so electricity will cost a fortune.

    People just like what is happening in Italy and Germany,people will have to choose between keeping warm and eating.

    It will be a way of culling off the population.

  34. bhupinder singh says:

    I have read many articles about coming ice age in 2014 because low activity of sun but my question is when exactly ice age will come and how much temp. fall globally. Can you sir give me answer


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